In a milestone achievement for decentralized predictions platform Polymarket, June saw trading volumes soar to over $100 million, driven primarily by escalating bets on the outcome of the upcoming United States presidential election.
As of the latest data, bets totaling $203.3 million are actively placed in Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market, featuring wagers split between “Yes” and “No” options across 17 prediction markets. Former President Donald Trump currently leads the odds, commanding a 62% probability of reclaiming the presidency, with a collective $24.7 million in wagers placed both for and against his candidacy.
Meanwhile, incumbent President Joe Biden trails with $23.9 million in bets on whether he will secure a second term. Biden’s prospects have dwindled from 34% to 21% following criticisms of his performance in the initial presidential debate on June 28. Surges in support have also been noted for Democratic figures Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, and Michelle Obama, prompting speculation among pundits about Biden’s future in the race.
The betting fervor extends beyond traditional candidates, with significant sums staked on scenarios such as “Biden drops out of presidential race” and “Biden drops out by July 4,” now pegged at 43% and 9% likelihood, respectively, amounting to over $10 million in wagers.
