Is BTC in Danger of Crashing Below $40K in a Vicious Correction? (BTC Price Analysis)
Bitcoin’s price has been consolidating around the critical $45K resistance level, and there are signs of slight fluctuations that could indicate the formation of a double-top pattern. If this pattern is confirmed, it could lead to a significant downturn in the short term.
The Daily Chart
Bitcoin has been consolidating near the $45K resistance zone, which is also the upper boundary of a multi-month ascending channel. However, the failure to reclaim the previous swing high at $44.6K suggests that there is selling pressure near this level.
There is a possibility that Bitcoin is forming a double-top pattern, and if the price breaks below the neckline of this pattern, it could target the support range around $38K. In the short term, the market is expected to maintain its consolidation pattern between $38K and $45K.
The 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart shows that Bitcoin’s price is consolidating between the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $40.5K and the resistance region of $45K. This indicates a balance between buyers and sellers.
The price has been moving within a sideways wedge pattern, with the lower trendline of the wedge aligning with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, providing strong support. The current attempt to break above the upper boundary of the wedge could lead to a bullish movement, but given the current market sentiment, the price is likely to continue consolidating between $40K and $45K.
On-chain analysis shows the mean amount of coins per transaction sent to exchanges, with a 30-day moving average applied alongside Bitcoin’s price. Elevated values of this metric suggest increased selling pressure, which could lead to a future price drop.
Historically, a surge in this metric has been followed by a price cascade caused by significant selling pressure from larger market participants. The recent upswing in the indicator indicates that participants are sending larger amounts of BTC to exchanges, possibly for distribution purposes.
If sustained surges in this metric reach concerning levels, it could signal substantial selling pressure from major market players, potentially resulting in a decline in prices.